Friday, February 22, 2008

National Debt Email Sent to Mr. Millican

Dear Mr Millican:

What cost $1.00 in 1938 would cost $14.30 in 2007. According to http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

Therefore, adjusted for inflation the national debt in 2007 was much smaller than the national debt in 1938.

But the chart on your site makes it look as if the national debt in 2007 was larger than the national debt in 1928.

Thus the chart on your site is very incorrect.

Actually, it's very much more complicated than that. A loaf of bread cost about eight cents in 1938. But that was a larger percentage of personal income for most American families in 1938 than the cost of a loaf of bread is today. And the unemployment rate in 1938 was about 25%.

For example, my mother never worked a day in her life. My father (born in 1905, or something like that) was a lawyer, and he and his friends thought of themselves as upper class. (I won't say "middle class" because Lou Dobbs uses that term to mean those at the bottom of the economic scale, not those in the middle.) However, their suburban houses would fit into the "family room" of most suburban houses today. And most families had only one automobile. As in the case of my father, it may have been a Cadillac, but it was the only family car. The things people think they "need" has increased even faster than incomes have increase.

And, of course, as the population grows and people around the world get richer, the price of those things whose quantity can never increase goes through the roof. For example, the best French wines.

But to accurately report even the rough data for the national debt, you need to find a chart that is adjusted for inflation. As it is, you are reporting a "fact" that is both meaningless and dishonest.
A lot of people would like to earn a 2007 income and pay 1938 prices. But that is impossible.

With every best wish,
J. Rogozinski

1 comment:

Tom Millican for President said...

First off my chart is not dishonest. It is similar to all the ones I have seen from many sources and here is why. A debt is a debt. It must be paid back. Debt is always relative to the time in which it was formed. From one period to the next debt is added to the previous amount of debt plus interest and the total carried forward. That is all this chart indicates – the total amount of dollars overspent plus interest for each period and accumulated. No matter how you slice it the US would have to come up with $9.2 Trillion dollars to pay off the National Debt today.

To my knowledge inflation is never mentioned in relation to debt but is always mentioned in relation to cost. That is what you example indicates, the growth in cost based on a 1938 dollar.

In 2007 the US Government overspent it’s budget by $514.1 Billion dollars. The cumulative debt of the United States in the past 5 completed fiscal years was approximately $2,767.8 billion, or about 30% of the total national debt of ~$9.25 trillion.

With that I am sticking to my guns. Sorry.